Truong Diep teetering on the brink

The phrase “teetering on the brink of” has never been so value-laden. One could say that Truong Diep (pictured) is teetering on the brink of victory, or that he is teetering on the brink of defeat. Both possibilities are achingly close to the line he’s on right now, and which phrasing you use will reveal — well, it reveals something. Not sure what, but something.

The Registrar of Voters’ office is just about done counting the mail-in ballots. One more day, and they should be all counted. The batch of provisional ballots is still untouched by human hands, and those take the longest to verify and count.

With just one day left, Assemblyman Van Tran‘s district staffer and Westminster City Council candidate Truong Diep is barely behind second-place Penny Loomer. With two seats available, Diep could still make Westminster the first U.S. city with a majority Viet council, if he manages to overcome the 58-vote difference.

Diep currently has 9,875  votes, to Loomer’s 9,933, in a field of five. Countywide, another 5000+ mail-in ballots remain to be counted. By the time the Bolsavik called the Registrar’s office, it’s closed and so it’s not clear how many of the 5000 are from Westminster. If we pro-rate by registered voters, then Westminster probably has about 200.

In order to catch up, Diep would need to get his extra 58 votes while, at the same time, not only Loomer but the remaining three candidates are all taking votes from the few mail-in ballots that remain.

In terms of mathematical expections (yes, the Bolsavik is a mathematician), Diep probably needs to outpoll Loomer by anywhere between 7-to-1 and 3-to-1 (depending on the model) in the remaining absentee ballots — again, to account for the votes going to Frank Fry (who has won), Alin Hamade and Al Krippner.

Not impossible. There have been days when Diep outpolled Loomer by more than 3-to-1 in the mail-in’s. Like yesterday, when he got 156 votes to Loomer’s 34.

If Diep does get ahead after the mail-in ballots are counted, there are still the provisional ballots to be counted. Historically, the provisionals have not been where Viet candidates catch up. Diep may get further ahead or fall back behind. This drama is not over yet.