The Red County/OC Blog is reporting here that Assemblyman Van Tran has filed a statement of intent to run in 2010 for the 35th State Senate District, currently held by fellow Republican Tom Harman.
Tran is termed out in 2010. Harman’s term is not up until 2012. So, how is Tran going to run for the 35th in 2010?
Because Harman has filed a statement of intent to run for state Attorney General in 2010. If Harman wins, his seat will open up and that’s what Van Tran will be running for.
Previously, rumors had it that Tran was aiming for Senator Lou Correa‘s seat in the 34th district. Correa is up for re-election in 2010.
No problems there. Tran can move all funds he raised for the 35th to a campaign for the 34th any time he wants to, so the 34th Senate seat is not out of the equation at all.
Harman’s district runs along the coast of Orange County, stretching from way up north Seal Beach all the way down to Dana Point.
And, even though Harman hardly ever shows up in Little Saigon, a big chunk of Little Saigon’s residential area is in his district. That main attraction commercial area known as Phuoc Loc Tho (or Asian Garden Mall), however, is in the Correa’s district.
In the map above, which zooms in on Little Saigon, the area south and west of the thick line is the 35th, the area north and east is the 34th.
This would be a perfect opportunity for our viet community to grow in political strength in OC. We need to pay close attention/support this race.
oh great a useless communist filth seeking another office he wont respect. when is a real viet leader gonna step up? who will be the first?
Jose S, I think that any of the four clowns would be more symbolic. Mr. VT does not possess enough pizzazz. Hahaha.
jose licka solorio, why are you worried about viet american empowerment?
Keep your mouth shut while mowing Loretta’s lwan for the 6 pack corona.
jose licka soloriobutt, keep lick’g until tip of your tongue wears off!
Loretta is one cheap chick to her own kind, only a six pack.
jose licka soloriobutt…..Can you still say you are looking for a good viet leader like me? I am not interested because I am just happy being the official guru.
umm jung kim, (or whatever your real name is) i worry about communist filth getting elected because i live within the boundaries so it directly affects me thats why. i dont like being represented by a communist. it’s really pretty simple and you are confusing “empowerment” with ignorance. as i have said before: there is no real leader in the viet community. plenty of dishonest communist filth thats for sure. are you gonna rattle off like 10 comments in a row now?
JK, is this before or after you take your meds?
Loretta is still looking for that good strong construction worker but not defective malfunctioning idiot Arturo Pedroza!
Tr. Gofor…… no this is before I give you that state sponsored male enlargement surgery.
jose licka soloriobutt…..for you everyone is communist including all your family members and all citizens living on this earth.
Ofcourse you are not a communist because you have a short, round tongue saturated with mexican meat odor from long time licking.
JK, when are you running for office?
The guru position is not an elected position and it’s the top office.
Do you wear colorful costumes like the Freedom Fighters?
No ding dong brain ….. do you wear colorful gloves?
1) Do you think Mr. VT has the non-Viet votes to pull off either races?
2) By Mr. VT indicating that he may run for both, does that give the wrong impression of his over-ambition?
T. Gofer….No since he only speaks spanish he will only receive mexican votes….now break this news to your mom.
Cao’s win in Louisiana paves way for another Vietnamese-American
By Aaron Blake
Posted: 01/20/09 07:13 PM [ET]
A Democratic district plagued by low turnout winds up going to a Vietnamese-American Republican.
It happened in New Orleans in 2008. Could it happen in Garden Grove in 2010? Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.) shocked everyone last month by winning a heavily Democratic seat in New Orleans, becoming the first Vietnamese-American in Congress.
But before that, many thought that distinction was tailor-made for California Assemblyman Van Tran (R), who had been the highest-ranking Vietnamese-American in U.S. politics. Tran has been eyeing a bid for Congress for a while now, and in 2010 many expect him to make a run at Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s (D-Calif.) seat. Tran said he met with officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) last year, but his growing family made it difficult to run in 2008. He isn’t jumping in just yet, but admits that he knows the district “like the back of my hand.”
“The numbers look good,” he said. “The demographics and geography look very viable.” So does his personal situation, he said. His second child was born four months ago, and he is termed out of the state assembly next year.
He is also eyeing the state Senate and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s (R-Calif.) seat, should there be an opening there (Tran lives near the border of Rohrabacher’s 46th district and Sanchez’s 47th and represents parts of both in the state assembly).
He has also mentioned waiting until redistricting takes effect in 2012, but many around him see a run at the 47th congressional district in 2010 as the best option. “I’m sure that he’ll look around, and probably the most attractive position will be Loretta Sanchez’s seat,” said Dr. Ngai Nguyen, a prominent Vietnamese-American political fundraiser. Nguyen said he thought the probability of Tran running for the seat was “very high.”
Sanchez’s district leans Democratic, registration-wise, but actually went narrowly for President Bush in 2004.
Tran would be relying on strong turnout from the Vietnamese-American community in the area, which is the largest Vietnamese community outside of the Southeast Asian country itself.
But Hispanics still account for about half of all voters, and against someone with a name like Sanchez, that leaves a steep hill to climb.
“It is a tough seat, for sure,” said area GOP pollster Adam Probolsky.
But Probolsky and others noted that turnout among the Vietnamese-American community is generally very high, while Hispanic turnout is usually very low. “That’s just a fact of elections in Southern California,” Probolsky said. “That margin of difference doesn’t become even, but it’s a whole lot closer than that, because of the turnout model of the Asian community.”
Sanchez’s district had the lowest turnout of California’s 53 congressional districts in 2008, bringing out fewer than 125,000 voters. In the 2006 midterms, it was only about 75,000.
Turnout for Cao’s win over indicted Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.), which was held a month after the November general election, was just 65,000.
Cao said his campaign probably turned out between 20 and 30 percent of Vietnamese-Americans in his race, but that Tran should do better.
“The Vietnamese communities out in California have been much more organized and much more active for years,” Cao said. “In states like Louisiana, we’re beginning to be more involved.”
Regardless of turnout, Tran, like Cao, would have to overcome serious demographic disadvantages. But such a win would not be unprecedented.
Terry Christensen, a political science professor at San Jose State University, which is near another large community of Vietnamese-Americans, noted a Vietnamese-American councilwoman in his area who represents a majority-Hispanic area. “The challenge is mobilizing the Latino population,” Christensen said, adding: “Sanchez would really have to whip that up.” But Sanchez hasn’t taken less than 60 percent of the vote since her second race, in 1998, and running against her will be tough.
Nguyen noted that Sanchez has made plenty of inroads among the Vietnamese-American community. He called her a “friend” and said Asians wouldn’t necessarily go to Tran en masse.
Sanchez spokeswoman Paula Negrete noted that the congresswoman has invited Cao to be a co-chairman of the Congressional Caucus on Vietnam.
“Together she hopes to promote awareness and policy debate among members of the United States Congress, the American public and the international community about the need to foster a greater respect for fundamental human rights in Vietnam,” Negrete said.
A GOP strategist said that a history of poor challenges to Sanchez would force a candidate like Tran “to make people believe it’s possible,” and that voters might initially be hesitant to engage in the race.
But that’s if Sanchez runs for reelection. She has already opened a gubernatorial campaign committee, and with dominoes falling all over California for the 2010 statewide elections, she might aim for higher office.
If she does that, the open seat would likely catapult to becoming one of the top races in the country.
Tran noted the possibility of an open seat, but also suggested that he thinks he could win head to head. “I’m not sure how serious she is with that,” Tran said of Sanchez’s statewide ambitions, “but definitely the 47th district and central Orange County is in political flux.”
If Tran believes that flux is favoring him, the seat could be a GOP target in 2010. And thanks to Cao, he has something of a model on which to build.
“The Vietnamese people in the community will get more excited, will be more willing to come out and vote,” Cao said, “but obviously, Mr. Tran would still have to work extremely hard.”
Actually, if you read the Red County/OC Blog posting again, Tran filed for the 35th Senate District for 2012 – not 2010.
Jk,
Jose S. is a piece of you know what. He hates alot of Viets because he hates himself. He’s a failure and a poor excuse of a human being. Flush him doiwn the toilet where he belongs.
Mr. Van Tran and other state legislators need to resolve the budget crisis now :
** Unemployment in Golden State leaps to 9.3 percent :
California’s unemployment rate jumped nearly a full percentage point from November to December, settling at 9.3 percent, the highest rate in 15 years.
The national rate of unemployment also ticked up to 7.2 percent.
** School Lunch for Low Income Student Program in Jeopardy : Funding for the program is dwindling thanks in part to the state budget crisis at a time when demand is rising. California’s public schools served 28 million more meals last year than in 2007.
** State is running out of cash : State Controller John Chiang says that tax refunds will be delayed, as will payments to state vendors and local social aid programs. Some rent and food assistance programs will be held back. Californians should also eventually expect permanently higher taxes, reduced services, and mounting job losses. Not a pretty picture, but one that looks likely.
** Cuts will be made : Housing assistant, Medi-Cal, Food Stamp…
Step 1 for California economic recovery – Remove corruptive self serving unions out of Sacramento.
I have been very disappointed by the governor’ lack of leadership and totally paralyzed legislature bodies.
* Legislators are playing with accounting gimmicks, and people’s money.
* Legislator are not taking any real sacrifices themselves.
* Half of the current deficits are from automatic increases built-in in many programs. If this mechanism is stopped, we could solve half of the problem.
* Proposed tax increases put additional burdens on tax payers. Another Tax revolt is sorely needed now.
Country First, I do not like photo-op governor and he deserves to be recalled. But at the sametime it’s the majority power holder Democrats whom have set a automatic built in increases on many worthless programs benefitting union interest groups.
Now Democrats are twisting unpopular lame governor’s arm to raise taxes.
An horrific signs of our time :
** A medical technician executed his wife, five young children and himself Tuesday after claiming in a note to a TV station that he and his wife both had just been fired.
** The shocking killings underscored the psychological toll that the down economy may be taking on some unemployed workers, as police urged those facing tough times to seek help rather than resort to violence.
** Crimes are on the rise, sales of all kinds of guns are also increase. This is a strong indication that people are losing faith in local law enforcements to provide adequacy production.
** the University of California announced it would eliminate 2300 freshman slots for Californians in the coming budget year.
** The current Budget being debated in the legislature is still too optimistic for its basic assumption of a moderate economic expansion in 2009 in the rage of 2-3 percent, where as all signs point to an economic contraction of 1 -2 percent. This is another accounting gimmick.
Is this the bottom of the housing market ?
“You can now own a home in several areas for less than it costs to rent,” said Mollie Carmichael, senior vice president with John Burns Real Estate Consulting, an Irvine, California-based consultant to the real estate industry.
In Southern California, home sales jumped 50.5 percent from the year earlier as median prices fell 34.6 percent to $278,000 and buyers snapped up foreclosed properties, MDA DataQuick said last week.
Worst U.S. housing market in 2008? California!
January 26th, 2009, 12:39 pm · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
California’s housing market grabbed a dubious honor: Worst in the nation in 2008!
First American Loan Performance’s year-end stats show:
* Home prices fell in 35 states, with California worst at down 26.9%.
* Followed by Nevada (-22.8%), Arizona (-19%), Florida (-18.2%), and Rhode Island (-13.7%).
California also has taken the harshest fall off its peak, by FALP data:
* California’s decline 42% since its peak, followed by Nevada (39%) and Arizona and Florida (both 33%.)
* U.S. home prices declined 18.5% off peak and are back at spring 2004 levels.
** First wave of foreclosures was because of the exotic loan products, home-owners could not pay the jump in mortgage reset payment. 2007
**Second wave of foreclosures was due to sharp market decline, home-owners is so upside down that is not worth keeping the house. 2008
**The NEXT wave of foreclosures will come as consequence of layoff and job cuts. 2009
Do you think my prediction is credible ?
You prediction sounds credible.
Good report.
** CALIFORNIA IS RUNNING OUT OF CASH:
California has started delaying $3.5 billion in payments to taxpayers, contractors, counties and social service agencies.
With the governor and state lawmakers locking horns on resolving California’s budget crunch, the controller Monday halted checks covering these obligations so the state could continue funding its school system and making its debt payments.
The delay will inflict more pain on the already sorry condition of the Golden State, which is facing a $40 billion budget gap. People won’t have tax refund money to spend, businesses won’t get paid for their services and agencies won’t have funds to help the needy until the budget situation is addressed.
Nearly $2 billion in personal state income tax refunds are being held up, according to state estimates. Last year, some two million Californians received refunds in February.
Afeminado numero uno
Hijo de la gran puta
Country First, your prediction about housing is wrong; just ask Assemblyman Thai v Tran. He just bought 2 homes in Elk Grove, CA.
1. 9428 Trollo Way (12/2008)
2. 8328 cantwell (8/2008)
Country First, your prediction is correct…. Andrew Do has been sleeping in his sofa for the last 3 months. Hijo de gran pobres y abogado sin trabajo.